Sunday, November 8, 2009

Fitting satellite data with the 3 box model

Here is a fit of the average of UAH and RSS satellite temperature data using my 3 box model:

The light blue line is the average of UAH and RSS LT data with very light smoothing (over 3 months) to make comparison easier with the heavy blue line representing temperature of the atmosphere box in the 3 box model described previously.
I get the best match to the recent plateau in atmosphere temperature with climate sensitivity parameter set at just 1.2 K (per equivalent CO2 doubling). Most other parameters are the same that fit GISS data (plotted as red yearly values) since 1880. The fit for the model global average (orange) is not as good for recent GISS data now, which is not surprising since they are different data sets representing different aspects of the climate.
The main reason the model is able to reproduce the recent plateau is the reduction in solar forcing balances the forcing increase from GHG for the atmosphere box. Well mixed ocean temperature is still increasing slowly. The projected portion of the plot assumes GHG forcing continues to increase and solar stays at its current low level.

No comments:

Post a Comment